Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9455 (S17W38) produced an M1/1n flare at 15/0300 UTC associated with
Type II and IV radio sweeps and a CME, which did not appear to be
Earth-directed. Region 9455 showed no significant changes and
maintained a minor degree of magnetic complexity. Minor spot
development occurred within Region 9454 (N12E05), which also
possessed minor magnetic complexity. New Region 9461 (N15E76)
rotated into view. It appeared to be the return of old Region 9433,
which produced major flares during its previous two rotations. An
impressive eruptive prominence and associated CME occurred from
beyond the northeast limb (to the east of new Region 9461) late in
the period. A long duration C-class X-ray enhancement was associated
with the prominence eruption.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9455 and 9454 appear capable of
isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the second half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to reach high levels during the first half
of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 142
Predicted 16 May-18 May 150/160/170
90 Day Mean 15 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 012/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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