Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9601 (N13W38) produced
an M6/2b flare at 05/1432Z. Moderate centimetric radio bursts
including a 770 sfu Tenflare accompanied this event. This region
was also responsible for an M3/1n flare at 04/2159Z. Region 9606
(S17E32) produced an M1/1n at 05/1913Z. New Region 9608 (S24E70) was
numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a detailed analysis of this
region, but space based imagery indicates significant complexity
exists.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Regions 9601 and 9608 will likely
produce C and M class flares. An isolated major flare is possible
from either region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 218 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 011/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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