Viewing archive of Friday, 12 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from a variety of active regions. The largest was a C7/SF at 12/0327
UTC in Region 9661 (N14E55). This region remains the largest sunspot
group presently on the disk with a beta-delta, E-type configuration
and sunspot area of about 800 millionths. The remaining sunspot
groups are relatively small and simple. New Region 9664 (N07E16)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 is the most likely candidate for an
M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels in
the wake of a passing CME. The most active periods occurred early in
the UTC day of the 12th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 179 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 028/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 015/020-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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