Viewing archive of Monday, 15 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. X-ray background levels
continue at the C-class threshold with several superposed C-class
flares, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E17). This sunspot group remains
the largest and most active group on the disk. It is a moderately
large E-type group which has steadily, but slowly, grown in area and
magnetic complexity since its arrival on the disk. New Regions 9668
(N29E01) and 9669 (N13E70) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 appears capable of an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A single
active period (15/0300-0600 UTC) occurred at many locations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 193 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/008-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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