Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9727 (S21E29)
produced an M1/2f event at 06/0826 UTC. This region continues to
develop its magnetic complexity and retained a delta configuration.
Region 9720 (S23W29) produced an C7/1f event at 06/1907 UTC. The
NOAA/SXI test imagery and NOAA/GOES x-ray data indicate a possible
coronal mass ejection associated with this event. The observed
Penticton 10.7 cm flux of 247 sfu is possibly flare enhanced and the
morning flux of 231 sfu may be more representative. New Region 9731
(N24E36) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9718 (S07W38) and 9727 are both capable of
producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 07 - 08 December. Unsettled
to active conditions are possible on 09 December due to the event
today from Region 9720 at 06/1907 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 247 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 007/008-007/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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