Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9727 (S20W10) produced today's largest flare: a C6/1f at 1541
UTC. There were several additional C-class flares during the day:
most of these were from Regions 9727 and 9733 (N14E58). However, a
C2 flare at 0421 UTC was observed to originate from the southeast
limb and was associated with a narrow-width CME. The region
subsequently rotated into view and was assigned 9734 (S12E81).
Region 9727 showed some growth today with the development of spots
north of the dominant leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. The main sources for
activity are expected to be Region 9727 and Region 9733.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 224 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 007/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 012/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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