Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only isolated C-class
events were observed during the period. Three regions have
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic classification: 9733
(N13W62), 9738 (S18W12), and 9742 (N10E37). Regions 9738 and 9742
are showing signs of increased activity and growth, while 9733 is
steadily decaying. Region 9733 will rotate over the west limb on 21
December. One new region was numbered: 9745 (N18E60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9738 and 9742 are expected to
continue to grow in size and complexity and should produce increased
levels of activity. Region 9733 continues to retain a slight chance
of producing a major flare before it transits over the western limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 212 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 200/200/195 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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