Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9767
(S18W87) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/0807 UTC. This region has
shown signs of slight decay as it approached the west limb. Region
9773 (N15W32) produced four minor C-class flare and remains a
magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta region. There has been growth
in the area coverage of this region but reduced spot count. Two new
regions were numbered today: Region 9781 (S06E64) and Region 9782
(N08E73). Region 9782 is believed to be the return of old Region
9742 which was quite active while on the disc.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with Regions 9773 (N14W32) and 9778 (S16E33) the most
promising flare sites.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, due to a
high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began at 10/2045 utc, reached a tentative maximum of 91 pfu at
11/0530 UTC. The flux is slowly declining.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next 48
hours. Strictly unsettled conditions should end the period. The
satellite proton event is expected to continue for at least another
24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 229 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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