Viewing archive of Friday, 1 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A small C-class
flare from Region 9800 (N08W31) along with several minor radio
sweeps and bursts comprised most all of today's activity. Region
9802 (S15W05) continues to show growth and development of spot
complex, the delta magnetic structure has become more evident during
the period. New Region 9810 (N10E81) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. USAF
planetary experienced an isolated period of active conditions from
01/1500 - 1800 UTC. Shortly after 31/2100 UTC, a shock passage was
observed at the ACE satellite. This was followed by a sudden
impulse of 19 nT observed at Boulder at 01/2127 UTC. The source
region for this weak shock is unknown.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 246 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 245/245/245 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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