Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar Activity was at moderate levels. Region 9802
(S15W56) produced an M1.3/Sf flare at 04/2330 UTC. Region 9802
continues to show gradual decay but remains a magnetically complex
Beta-gamma-delta region. Region 9816 (S12W46) growth continues but
at a slower rate than yesterday. A large positive polarity coronal
hole near central latitude is currently rotating into a
geo-effective position. Solar wind speed has increased to 550
km/sec at the time of forecast issue. Three new regions were
numbered today: Region 9817 (S07E23), Region 9818 (N06E54), and
Region 9819 (S29E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9802 and has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one 3
hour period of quiet conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions is expected to return by day
three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 221 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 015/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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