Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was a low levels. The largest event was
a C3.6/Sf from Region 9900 (S29W68). Region 9906 (S15E13) has shown
rapid growth with an area of 470 millionths, 38 spots, and
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot.
Region 9893 (N18W53) and Region 9901 (N20W39) have maintained there
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and have shown some increase
in area. Region 9907 (S04E46) has increased in area and spot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9906 has the potential for producing M-class
events and a small chance of a major event. Region 9893/9901
complex has M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A 24 nT
sudden impulse was observed on the boulder magnetometer at 12/2243
UTC. The sudden impulse is likely the result of a weak CME shock
passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. We are still expecting some CME
effects on day one of the forecast period and possibly early on day
two. A small coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic field in
unsettled conditions on day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 226 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 225/220/220 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 014/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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