Viewing archive of Friday, 19 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9906 (S14W66) produced
several C-class subflares during the past day. The largest was a
C3/Sf at 19/1822 UTC. This region continues to decay slowly but
retains appreciable size and magnetic complexity. New Regions 9913
(S15E23) and 9914 (N04E72) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9906 appears to be capable of M-class activity,
including an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm. A shock
was observed at ACE at 19/0804 UTC and was followed by an SI at
ground magnetometers (36 nT at Boulder) at 19/0836 UTC. This shock
is believed to be associated with the LDE M2/CME that occurred on 17
April.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels for about the next 12
hours as the current CME passes. The field is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the 3-day forecast
period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region
9906 produces a major flare.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 180 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 035/054 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 030/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 030/040-012/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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