Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity remained at low levels with occasional
C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4/1n at 24/1605 UTC from
Region 9912 (N09W51). Region 9912 showed gradual decay, mostly in
its trailer spots. Region 9913 (S16W44) produced occasional
subflares, a few of which reached C-class. It showed minor growth as
well as a minor mix of polarities. Region 9914 (N04E04) showed
gradual growth, but remained simply-structured. New Region 9924
(S17W07) emerged rapidly and produced isolated subflares. It was a
relatively small D- type spot group with minor polarity mixing
throughout. New Region 9923 (S03W31) was also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are
possible during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC
continued. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was around 24.0 PFU
and gradually decreasing as the period ended.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April
increasing to unsettled to active levels on 27 April due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end early in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 177 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 021/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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