Viewing archive of Monday, 6 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a optically uncorrelated C2/1f flare at 06/1604 UTC. Region
9934 (S17E08) has shown slight decay and has simplified to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. At 06/1350 UTC a partial halo
CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery on the east limb. Analysis of
EIT, GOES X-Ray, and H-alpha data indicate a probable backside
event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9934 has lost it's delta configuration in the
leader spot.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels. One 3-hour period
(15-18 UTC) was at active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled conditions
are expected for day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 191 Predicted 07 May-09 May 195/200/205 90 Day Mean 06 May 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 002/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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