Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
occurred. Region 9957 (N08E34) has shown a slight increase in area
and sunspot count and retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. A new region was numbered today as Region 9961
(S22E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9957 is capable of producing a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Minor storming subsided after 19/0900 UTC to quiet to unsettled
conditions. This activity correlates well with the full halo CME
observed on 16 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 171 Predicted 20 May-22 May 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 May 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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