Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Two impulsive M-class
events occurred during the period. The first was an M1/1n flare
from Region 9973 (S17E23) at 01/0357 UTC. This event was
accompanied by a moderate tenflare (260 sfu), and Type II/IV radio
sweeps (with estimated sweep velocity = 493 km/s). Region 9973
retains its large size and moderate magnetic complexity though also
appears relatively stable. Today's second event was an M1/Sf flare
from Region 9979 (S30E63), which occurred at 01/1049 UTC. This
region is exhibiting moderate magnetic complexity as it rotates into
better view on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 9980
(S29E08) emerged on the disk today as a small and simply structured
spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare exists for Regions 9973 and 9979.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled for most of the
forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active conditions
by the end of the period, which may result from the solar activity
reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event (described in section
1A above).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 179
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 175/170/170
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 005/008-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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