Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. The most notable event of the
period was a long duration C1.0 flare at 16/0814 UTC. There were no
optical reports associated with this event, but a CME was evident in
LASCO imagery just following the flare, from a presumed source
behind the northeast limb, near N35. Active prominences have been
visible in H-alpha imagery in this area for the past 24 hours.
Other activity included an optically uncorrelated C1.4 flare at
16/0332 UTC. B-class activity was observed in Region 9991 (S21W47)
and Region 3 (N00E49). New Region 5 (N13E74) rotated into view and
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
mostly low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 137 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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