Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W51)
produced an M1/1f flare at 02/2031Z. This region grew quite
significantly in the last 24 hours, tripling in white light size to
over 420 millionths in a beta-gamma configuration. Region 19
(S18E34) has decayed somewhat, but continues to produce occasional
minor C-class flares. New Region 20 (N01E63) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels. Regions 17 and 19 have potential to
produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods at high latitudes through day one.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 149 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 010/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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