Viewing archive of Friday, 5 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W89)
produced an M3/Sf flare at 05/1326 UTC. This flare was associated
with a Type II/IV radio sweep and an apparent CME directed off the
southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S18W08) produced a C6/Sf flare at
05/1556 UTC. This region, as well as Region 21 (S29W21), also
produced a number of other subflares. New Region 26 (N24W58) emerged
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 17 and 19 remain the most likely source of M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to influence
activity levels over the next few days.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 139 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 012/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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