Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E12)
produced numerous B- and C-class flares again today. A slight
growth of penumbral coverage was observed today in white light
analysis. The dominant intermediate spot continues to show delta
magnetic characteristics along with a weak secondary delta spot just
to the northwest of it. A re-emergence of a single alpha spot was
seen in Region 28 (S16W40). Region 29 (S14W29) continues to decay.
New Region 34 (S20E05) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. There is a chance that Region 30 could produce
another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through
day one. Days two and three may experience periods of active
conditions due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 144 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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