Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Regions 39
(S14W30), 44 (S20W33), and 50 (S08W19) produced isolated C-class
subflares. Region 39 began to gradually decay and simplify, but
retained a weakened delta magnetic configuration within its leader
spots as well as a delta in its trailer spots. Region 44 also began
to slowly decay, but retained a magnetic delta configuration within
its intermediate spots. Region 50 appeared to stabilize as a E-type
group of moderate size and complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and
44. Either region could produce a major flare during the period.
Region 50 could also produce an isolated M-class flare during the
period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 01 - 02
August. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 227 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 007/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 010/010-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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