Viewing archive of Monday, 12 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 58
(S06W75) produced isolated C-class flares as it gradually decayed.
Region 69 (S07E65) was stable as it rotated further into view. It
was large with an area exceeding 1100 millionths of the solar disk.
It appeared to be moderately complex and may contain a magnetic
delta within its intermediate spots, though limb proximity prevented
a thorough analysis. Four new regions were assigned today: 73
(N16W13), 74 (N24W01), 75 (S09E32), and 76 (N12E75); all of which
were unremarkable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels due to
recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels on 13 August as coronal
hole effects continue. Field activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 184 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 015/016-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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