Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61 (N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at 14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03) produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region 69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
A geomagnetic disturbance is expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton90%75%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 208
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  210/215/215
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm20%30%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%30%
Minor storm25%35%15%
Major-severe storm10%20%01%

All times in UTC

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