Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Reigon 96 (S16E13) produced a C2.5/Sf flare at 04/1454 UTC. Region 96 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the trailing spots. Region 95 (N08W03) has shown some decay in area coverage particularly in the intermediate spots. A 16 degree solar filament lifted off the disk at S35W05.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 95 and 96 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storming levels. A magnetic storm gradually commenced after 04/0000 UTC and sustained negative Bz resulted in major storm levels. A weak transient was observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately 04/1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active conditions. The magnetic storm is expected to diminish early on day one of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach moderate to high levels on day two and three due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M45%45%50%
Class X05%05%10%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 171
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  165/170/180
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  037/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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