Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred. Region 119 (S14W49) remains the largest, most complex sunspot group on the disk but appears to have simplified somewhat. Four new Regions were numbered: 129 (N25E54), 130 (N06E52), 131 (S07E35), and 132 (N18W01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 119 seems to be the most capable area for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 160
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  008/008-008/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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