Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 134 (N12E24) produced several minor C-class events. This region continues to maintain its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 134 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible for September 29 - 30 due to potential effects from a coronal hole passage.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Sep 149
  Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct  150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  010/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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