Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 137
(S19W05) produced an M2/1n flare and associated CME at 03/0221Z.
This region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, however,
there was indication of a delta configuration developing in the
trailing spot. Region 134 (N14W42) exhibited considerable decay. No
other significant changes observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 137 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. A CME was
observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 02/2200Z. Though it
was a relatively modest shock, several extended periods of southward
IMF Bz ensued, creating the minor to major storm periods. The storm
is assumed to be associated to the CME activity observed early on 30
Sep.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through the next
three days. A CME was observed early today in association with the
M2 flare in Region 137. Though most of the material appeared
southward directed, we may experience some minor effects.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 146 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 145/150/160 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 031/044 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 025/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 018/015-015/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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