Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 139
(N11E19) produced two M-class flares, the largest an M2.4/1n at
06/0451 UTC. Region 139 has shown slight decay in overall area
coverage but some area growth and mixing polarities in the leader
spots. There has been little change in Region 137 (S19W48) over the
last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 and 137 have the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A six-hour
period of southward Bz (02Z to 08Z) was associated with a sector
boundary crossing and resulted in active to minor storm conditions
(03Z to 09Z). Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Transient effects from
weak CME activity on 04 Oct are possible on day one of the forecast
period. Coronal hole effects are expected on day one and day two of
the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 162 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 020/020-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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