Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was a C2.6 flare at 12/1922UTC, without a correlating optical
report. Region 149 (N16E34) increased somewhat in size today.
Region 139 (N08W59) remains the largest group on the visible disk,
retaining mixed polarities within its penumbral area, but appears
relatively stable and quiescent. Two new regions were numbered
today, Regions 157 (N17E49) and 158 (S08E80). The latter appears as
a large unipolar spot near the east limb, which may be the leader of
a larger group rotating onto the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate activity.
Regions 149 and 139 are both potential sources for isolated moderate
flares during the period. Region 139 will rotate off the visible
disk by the end of the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period observed during 12/0900-1200 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels
and exceeded event threshold today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 180 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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