Viewing archive of Monday, 21 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 20/2137 UTC on the
southwest limb. The most likely source is Region 154 (S14W75).
Region 162 (N11E40) produce a number of minor C-class events. This
region has shown a possible weak delta magnetic configuration
developing in the intermediate spots. Region 160 (S22W40) has
exhibited decay in area coverage and spot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 162 has M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed has continued to gradually decrease, ending the period near
525 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A chance of isolated active
conditions are possible on day one and two of the period due to
activity from the M1.8/Type II event on 20 October.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 183 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 010/012-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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