Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been high. An X1 optically
uncorrelated event occurred at 31/1652 UTC. The SOHO/LASCO EIT
images indicates two possible source regions, Region 162 (N26W88)
and a region beyond the SE limb. A new region was numbered today as
Region 178 (N00W15).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 162 and 175 (N16E29) are both capable of
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active conditions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 1-2 November. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible for 3 November due to a coronal hole
passage.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 170 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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