Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class
flares were observed today, all from Region 198 (S18E02). The
largest flare was a C6.6/Sf that occurred at 21/1104 UTC. Magnetic
complexity and white-light spot coverage went mostly unchanged
today. Region 195 (S17W24) continues to undergo a slow but steady
decay. A small cluster of umbra materialized today between the two
previously mentioned regions becoming newly numbered Region 201
(S16W09).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected at low to
moderate levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class
flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm
levels. Isolated major storm conditions were seen at all latitudes
and a period of severe storm levels were observed at high latitudes
between 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. Elevated geomagnetic activity is in
response to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm to severe storm conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are
possible through day one. A steady return to quiet to unsettled
conditions should occur during the remainder of the forecast period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit should
reach moderate to high levels by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 151 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 035/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 025/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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