Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 198 (S18W36)
produced a long duration C1/Sf event at 24/1809 UTC. This region
remains mostly unchanged and continues to maintain its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region
202 (N14E66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 198 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 146 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 010/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 010/012-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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