Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Events were limited to
small C-class flares observed through the period. A new region was
numbered today as Region 203 (N08E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Occasional C-class events continue to be possible from Region
197 (N24W84) and 198 (S18W61). A chance for an isolated M-class
event is also possible from Region 198.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high
levels today. The observed Afr for 25 Nov is estimated due to
missing data.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to
minor storm conditions are possible for 27 Nov as a result of the
activity associated with the CME observed on 24 Nov.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 142 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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