Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A few minor C-class
flares were observed today. The largest event of the period was a
C2.5/Sf flare with an associated eruptive prominence on the east
limb from newly numbered Region 220 (S12E47). Available data
suggests that there may have been some interaction from Region 218
(S20E55) during this event. Region 214 (N13W83) has begun to
quietly exit the west limb. Regions 219 (S05W25) and 221 (N22E61)
were also assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. C-class activity continues to be likely from Region
220.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached
moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 156 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 006/010-006/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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