Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 251 (S14E70)
produced an M4/0f event at 07/2333 UTC. This region is currently a
Dki beta gamma group with 11 spots. Regions 242 (S08W22) and 244
(S22W16) produced several low to mid-level C-class events. Region
242 continues to grow slightly in area and sunspot count and also
contains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk have the potential for
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the next three days.
Isolated active conditions are possible on 10 January due to
expected coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 174 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/010-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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