Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C6
X-ray flare at 12/1425Z was the most energetic event of the day.
Region 242 (S07W75) was the most active region on the disk,
producing frequent plage fluctuations and occasional low C-class
flares as it approaches the west limb. Minor C-class flares were
also observed in Regions 244 (S22W71) and 247 (S16W07). It became
more evident this period that Region 251 (S14E24) contained two
distinct bipoles; consequently, this region was separated with new
Region number 255 (S13E13) assigned to the large westernmost spot.
It also became clear that the trailing spots in Region 254 (S16E44)
make up a distinct bipole and were numbered as Region 256 (S17E55).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare,
primarily from Region 242.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 173 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/008-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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