Viewing archive of Monday, 20 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 260
(N14E13) produced the largest flare during the interval, a C4.3/Sf
event occurring at 20/0710 UTC. This region has shown a slight
increase in magnetic complexity and spot coverage since yesterday.
Region 259 (N10W15) has shown decay in the intermediate spot cluster
and remains simply structured. The solar disk was mostly quiescent
throughout the period. Regions 264 (S20W02, 265 (N04E31), 266
(S23E56), and 267 (S20E77) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with a brief
period of minor storm conditions (between 20/0000 to 0300 UTC) at
high latitudes. Coronal hole high speed stream effects from a
southern polar extension are believed to be responsible for the
elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions for day one of the
period as the favorably positioned coronal hole wanes. Day two
should see a return to predominantly unsettled conditions. By day
three a transequatorial recurrent coronal hole should become
geoeffective producing active to minor storm levels at both middle
and high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 138 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 010/010-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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