Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. There were several
C-class flares today: one C5.1 at 0115 UTC from Region 297
(S16E67), a C2.4 at 0842 UTC and a C3.0 at 1432 UTC from Region 292
(S07 on the West limb), and 4 separate C-Class flares from Region
296 (N13E78). Region 297 (S16E67) was newly assigned today. SXI
images from GOES-12 show yet another new region behind the East limb
at approximately S20.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to a high
speed coronal hole stream which has nearly passed. At
geosynchronous orbit, the greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 138 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 012/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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