Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C1 from Region 318
(S15E62) at 1214 UTC. This flare was associated with an erupting
filament and narrow CME observed on the east limb. The second was a
C1 from a new region behind east limb that was visible in Solar
X-ray images at latitude N04. New Region 319 (N15E53) was assigned
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
period of storm level activity from 0900-1200 UTC, with minor storm
levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was caused by high speed solar wind accompanied by
frequent negative and positive fluctuations of Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (typically oscillating between +6 to -
6 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days, with a chance
for some isolated active periods. Activity is expected to increase
to mostly active on the third day in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 093 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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