Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 318 (S14W20) and 323
(S08W01) exhibited considerable growth this period and between them
produced several C-class flares, including a C8/1f flare from Region
318 at 29/1839Z. Larger Regions 319 (N12W30) and 321 (N04E11) were
uneventful and continue to slowly decay. No significant developments
in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The potential for M-class flares is increasing with the
rapid development in Regions 318 and 323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
pronounced transient flow with sustained periods of southward Bz in
the interplanetary magnetic field, produced the disturbed periods.
Solar wind speed decreased to less than 400 km/s by end of period,
but continued southward Bz is prolonging the disturbance.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
likely over the next three days. Weak coronal hole effects are
expected on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 155 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 023/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 010/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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