Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. There were only two
C-class flares from Regions 323 (S08W43) and 318 (S12W65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from either
Region 323 (S08W43), Region 325 (N12E14), or Region 324 (S11W08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with
occasional major storming at high latitudes. The high speed stream
that began early on 30 March continued during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which has impacted earth for the previous two days will pass by day
two.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 153
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 015/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 017/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 45% | 30% | 30% |
Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
All times in UTC
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