Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant
C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This
region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the
last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were
numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently
complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in
the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled
activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream.
By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with
the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to
unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 156
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 011/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 015/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
All times in UTC
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