Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S12W74)
produced two C-class flare with the largest a C5 flare at 06/1928Z.
Region 324 continues to show gradual decay and has simplified to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The two largest regions on the
disk, Region 325 (N13W48) and Region 330 (N07E38), have both
increased in spot count and have developed beta magnetic
configurations. Area coverage has been relatively unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, 330 have C-class potential and may
produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. High
speed stream effects have diminished with solar wind velocity
decreasing to near 450 km/s and Bz oscillations subsiding.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. There is a
slight chance of a weak CME shock late on day two or early on day
three, which could produce isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 126 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 012/012-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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