Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events occurred, the largest a C6 at 0933 UTC from a site just beyond the SW limb. Region 330 (N08W02) is the most prominent of the six spotted regions, but has been quiet all day. Newly numbered region 333 (N11W36) was born on the disk. There are indications of another spot group just now coming into view on the SE limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. This activity is believed to be an extension of the shock/cme disturbance that began yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 48 hours. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream is due to affect the magnetosphere. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to end the period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 109
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  017/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  022/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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