Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Today's only C-class flare was a C2/Sf from Region 330 (N07W57) at 0854 UTC. New Region 335 (S22E57) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for additional isolated C-class flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed declined steadily during the past 24 hours with day end values between 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days, with a chance for some isolated active periods. A coronal hole will be rotating to a favorable position sometime between 15 and 17 April and is expected to produce an increase in geomagnetic activity levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Apr 102
  Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  100/095/090
  90 Day Mean        13 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  010/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Apr  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  012/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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