Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There were only two
minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The two spotted
regions on the disk were small, quiet, and stable. A five degree
filament near N15W51 disappeared between 1157 and 1222 UTC. An 11
degree filament near N21E29 disappeared sometime between 15/2341 and
16/1542 UTC. There did not appear to be any CME observed by
SOHO/LASCO that could be associated with either of these events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is likely to be a slow increase in background
levels with the addition of new regions which are now visible in
GOES Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor to major storm period from 0900-1200 UTC and a
minor storm period at high latitudes from 1800-2100 UTC. The
coronal-hole induced high speed solar wind flow continues. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to active is expected
on the second day with a return to unsettled levels by the third
day.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 099 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 013/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 45sun goes blank 72Space Weather Memes 566Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1209AR13889 143
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |