Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S10E10)
produced a C1.4 flare at 1931Z. Region 362 was shown some growth
since yesterday and has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration. Region 364 (S24W40) produced three C1
flares and has shown growth in area coverage. New Region 365
(S06E68) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. C-class activity is expected from Regions 362 and 364.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels with one period of
quiet conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 124 Predicted 21 May-23 May 125/135/140 90 Day Mean 20 May 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 010/012-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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