Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of occasional C-class subflares, mostly from Region 375 (N12E50). Region 375 is now the largest spot group on the disk and was active, but did not show significant growth during the past 24 hours. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region 375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was an isolated minor storm period from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind data continue to indicate the presence of a high-speed wind stream, which is due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active at mid-latitudes and active to minor storm at high latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream should continue for at least the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 115
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  022/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  022/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  020/030-020/035-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm40%40%40%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm45%45%45%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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