Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun

Class M	50%	50%	50%
Class X	15%	15%	15%
Proton	25%	15%	15%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       19 Jun 123
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	40%	25%
Minor storm	15%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	50%	50%	40%
Minor storm	20%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	10%

PLAIN GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 99999

All times in UTC

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